I don't have a first damn clue!
We can do a thought experiment though. We have good plotting tools available and I want to test the hypothesis to see, what a tepid remaining sale looks like, and also what a full pre-sale sold out looks like. Here we go!
As of the time of writing this draft, the following table, and the image above is the current pre-sale situation. We are about 20% sold for standard and legendary packs. However, alchemy packs are more popular due to better odd of black foils, and they are 50% sold.
Current Pack Sale Statistics (as of May 8, 2025)
| Pack Type | Total Supply | Packs Sold | Packs Remaining | Price (DEC) | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 500,000 | 104,408 | 395,592 | 4,000 | $4.00 |
| Alchemy | 100,000 | 50,887 | 49,113 | 12,000 | $12.00 |
| Legendary | 50,000 | 9,986 | 40,014 | 24,000 | $24.00 |
| Total | 650,000 | 165,281 | 484,719 | - | - |
Projection
If the current rate of pack sale goes on and tomorrow the sale increases at 1.5X the current rate and the final day 2X the current rate, then we won't sale out! Following would be the final projected table. That is a potential but unlikely outcome in my opinion. I have participated in many pre-scale and the sales growth is exponential is the last day/hour.
Projected Final Pre-Sale Table (by May 11, 2025)
This assume linear growth
| Pack Type | Total Supply | Projected Packs Sold | Projected Packs Remaining | Percentage Sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 500,000 | 116,358 | 383,642 | 23.3% |
| Alchemy | 100,000 | 59,153 | 40,847 | 59.2% |
| Legendary | 50,000 | 11,196 | 38,804 | 22.4% |
| Total | 650,000 | 186,707 | 463,293 | 28.7% |
What the sale need to be to sale out
Assuming exponential growth
This is the scenario, where I am assuming two things
- packs will sell out
- sale growth will be exponential during the reminder of the sale
Allowing those assumptions, for the remaining time, we can think about an exponential sales growth scenario like this table.
| Date & Time | Standard Packs | Alchemy Packs | Legendary Packs | Total Packs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 10:30–16:29 | 177 | 22 | 18 | 217 |
| May 8, 16:30–22:29 | 330 | 41 | 33 | 404 |
| May 8, 22:30–May 9, 04:29 | 617 | 77 | 62 | 756 |
| May 9, 04:30–10:29 | 1,153 | 143 | 117 | 1,413 |
| May 9, 10:30–16:29 | 2,154 | 267 | 218 | 2,639 |
| May 9, 16:30–22:29 | 4,023 | 500 | 407 | 4,930 |
| May 9, 22:30–May 10, 04:29 | 7,516 | 933 | 760 | 9,209 |
| May 10, 04:30–10:29 | 14,045 | 1,744 | 1,420 | 17,209 |
| May 10, 10:30–16:29 | 26,236 | 3,258 | 2,653 | 32,147 |
| May 10, 16:30–22:29 | 48,990 | 6,084 | 4,956 | 60,030 |
| May 10, 22:30–May 11, 01:00 | 290,351 | 36,044 | 29,370 | 355,765 |
| Total | 395,592 | 49,113 | 40,014 | 484,719 |
It is hard to accurately plot this while the clock is ticking, but it would look something like this
This doesn't assume accurate remaining time. But just shows the nature of the curve. The reason I plotted this, because if you look at it, you correctly will think in the reminder of the time, perhaps it is hard to get the standard packs to sell out. It would be a lot of sale. However, it is likely that alchemy and legendary packs can sell out.
If I plot alchemy and legendary packs separately the curves are a bit easier to read. Again, it doesn't follow the timeline exactly, because as I write this post, time is running away. But I will try.
This is a more accurate representation with a closer timeline. Hopefully, I will be able to track where does the final sale lands.
