Week 09 Results | 21W-22L-5P | -1.402 Units Loss

avatar of @costanza
5 min read

This is a weekly overview of my personal sports betting/trading results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League documenting my journey toward long-term profit with some insights on my overall approach.

Week 9 so far was by far the most interesting to me this season. After excellent results so far which are the result of a combination of skill, experience, luck and mostly many hours put into it, I got to a point where I started to feel really comfortable in my ability believing there were some lines just way off. This along with being up quite a lot, made me willing to take somewhat increase my risk a bit (Note that I'm still extremely conservative and I could financially easy handle putting 10 units on single bets). There were 3 bets that really stood out which were Antwerp -1.5 / OHL +0.5 / Club Brugge -0.25. This is how they played out.

Antwerp -1.5 : They took an early 2-goal lead scoring once again nearly 100% of their chances and it felt at that point like the -1.5 line was like stealing money as they had complete control in a match that looked to potentially end with a much bigger score. The in-game line also felt really generous on Antwerp but I didn't take more but also didn't put my stake safe as there was just no way it was going to lose. That until minute 43' where the 2-1 came falling out of the air for Seraing. Antwerp took a good start in the 2nd half but failed to score the 3-1 which somehow got in their head while Seraing gained more confidence. So the level of Antwerp dropped a lot and they were nowhere. they did manage to score the 3-1 but it narrowly was offside in a match that ended 2-1 failing to cover this handicap which was a miracle based on the first 40 minutes..

OHL +0.5 : I had OLH as a potential revelation for the season while Mechelen has not yet shown the form they had last year which made the +0.5 line a no-brainer to me. However, this didn't really show in the match as Mechelen overall were the better team and deserved favorite. A red card for Mechelen really helped the bet as The match ended in a 0-0 score with Mechelen never really having much of an issue to hold off OHL despite playing with 10. So overall I wouldn't say a lucky win but by no means the edge I was anticipating and more of a coinflip that went the right way.

Club Brugge -0.25 : The difference in quality showed quite early in the match but the combination of the willingness of Standard to put in the work and the full stadion behind them while Brugge came off a stunt against Porto having a bit more fatigue made it so that standard took the lead and never really gave it away instead increasing it to 3-0 by the end of the match which fans will remember for probably the next decade.

so 1W-2L as a result on the bigger bets with one of them being a total miscalculation, while one got lucky and another one got unlucky.

Lessons Learned: There are 3 main lessons I learned or saw confirmed you could say

  • I have a small edge over the market and not a big one and when it feels like there is a big edge, many times I will be just wrong on it.
  • Setting maximum amounts that I am willing to lose no matter how tempting or juicy the situation is, remains key and I'm glad that I am extremely disciplined in that regard and I will continue this for sure.
  • I can emotionally and financially easily handle somewhat bigger stakes which will make me increase the average unit I stake a bit more. I will slowly continue to scale things higher though as I don't want to get into a small bad run which wipes all profit off the table.

Pre-Game Preview Bets Season 2022-2023

The Preview highlighted bets which are counted just as flat stakes which I would say is the best way to potentially follow for everyone that is interested continue to show a straight line up this week going 3W-3L just for a small loss. So far this season I had 68 bets which produced +14.872 units good for +21.87% ROI.

Previous 2 Seasons Result

I take all my Pre-Game & Live bets with my Betting Broker Sportmarket Pro who always provides the best offers on the market with a 1 click solution and doesn't limit winning players offering high limits. For more info check my Sportmarket Pro Review

Regular Season 2022-2023 Personal Betting Chart

The season chart also still looks rock solid despite the shot to go to the moon this week failing. My main aim going forward will be to make the pink line have a steeper curve by increasing my stakes a bit further which will come at the risk of bigger swings. I'm still well above it on my actual profit and I'm willing to take that risk. The key will be to stay focused making sure I have an edge. On many games this week I kind of start noticing a decline in sharpness (also because I was mostly focussed on the 3 bigger bets). There now is an international break which comes at a perfect time after a non-stop 2-month grind having my focus on the football.

Season Results 2022-2023

Week 09 Results 48 Bets | 21W-22L-05P | Staked 08.577u | -1.402u Loss Week 08 Results 62 Bets | 32W-26L-04P | Staked 10.849u | +2.012u Profit Week 07 Results 76 Bets | 40W-27L-09P | Staked 09.442u | +2.310u Profit Week 06 Results 46 Bets | 22W-15L-09P | Staked 06.422u | +0.983u Profit Week 05 Results 56 Bets | 23W-29L-04P | Staked 08.723u | -2.211u Loss Week 04 Results 58 Bets | 30W-22L-06P | Staked 08.230u | +1.777u Profit Week 03 Results 43 Bets | 23W-16L-04P | Staked 06.271u | -0.162u Loss Week 02 Results 27 Bets | 10W-16L-01P | Staked 04.515u | +0.225u Profit Week 01 Results 44 Bets | 25W-17L-02P | Staked 06.186u | +2.050u Profit

 Regular Season 2022-2023 Results 
460 Bets | 226W-190L-44P | 69.216 Staked | +5.583u Profit | +8.07% ROI 

Previous Seasons Personal Betting Results [6641 Bets +3.57% ROI]

I will have a break the coming 11 days and be back after that with more betting action keeping track on the results in these weekly posts. I also already took an early bet that was shared on the SBC Discord.

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