My assumption is sound.
it is safe to assume that most of the interest paid on HBD will be converted to HIVE at some point in the future.
First I understand that your primary desire is that people use HBD as a currency. Consider your checking account. You spend most of the most of the money in your checking account ... n'est-ce pas?
If people started using HBD as a currency; then they will be pulling funds in and out of savings on a regular basis. if HBD achieved the desired objective the people would withdraw money regularly.
It is totally reasonable to assume that people who save HBD today will withdraw a substantial portion of their HBD over the next 20 years.
Saving HBD is different from staking HIVE.
I accept that I will be hodling my HIVE POWER to the end.
I do not intend to risk my HBD savings.
These two investments involve a different mind set.
HBD is a pure percent game. HBD investors will withdraw and convert their funds to HIVE if they fear HBD is approaching the dreaded haircut of if the interest rate drops.
BTW: I was watching Ausbit HBD Monitor daily just before the FTX fiasco. The market value of HBD was just about to hit $10 M. The market value dropped to something like $8.5 M indicating that HBD holders converted over a million HBD to HIVE in that period.
So we have already experienced one mass exodus. I think we can expect to see HBD holders convert massive amounts of HBD to HIVE whenever there is a sharp market correction.
The stats by @arcange show millions of HBD being converted to HIVE.
The claim that people will end up withdrawing and converting the bulk of their HBD savings at some point in the future is solid.
The only alternative is that people forget their keys or that HIVE collapses before people can get their money out.
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