The Monthly Chart Looks Neutral — But The Macro Environment Is Anything But Simple
Bitcoin Is Back Near $77K
Bitcoin is once again trading around the $77,000 area.
At first glance, this might look like another normal price movement.
But if we step back and look at the monthly chart, the situation becomes much more interesting.
Bitcoin is no longer at the extreme lows of the previous cycle.
But it is also not showing the kind of momentum that would make me comfortable calling this the beginning of another major bullish expansion.
That is why I think the $77K area deserves more attention.
Not because it is guaranteed to be the bottom.
And not because Bitcoin must fall from here.
But because the market is currently sitting between two important possibilities.
The Monthly Chart Is Sending A Mixed Message
Looking at the monthly chart, Bitcoin is around $77,170.
The chart shows three important moving averages:
MA(7): ~$70,744
MA(30): ~$82,648
MA(200): not currently providing a visible value on the chart
This immediately gives us an interesting picture.
Bitcoin is trading above the MA(7).
That means the current price is still above its shorter-term monthly average.
But Bitcoin remains below the MA(30).
And that is important.
The MA(30) around $82.6K can be viewed as a much larger resistance area for the current structure.
So Bitcoin is currently sitting between two important levels.
Around $70K–$71K below.
And around $82K–$83K above.
This is why I don't see $77K as a simple “buy” or “sell” signal.
It looks more like a decision zone.
RSI Is Not Saying Bitcoin Is Overheated
Another interesting part of the chart is the RSI.
The monthly RSI(14) is around 50.38.
That is almost exactly the middle of the scale.
It is not showing an extremely overbought market.
But it is also not showing an extremely oversold market.
This is important because people often look at Bitcoin's price and immediately assume that a strong recovery means the market is already overheated.
The RSI suggests something different.
Bitcoin has recovered significantly from its previous lows, but the monthly momentum is still relatively balanced.
In simple terms:
The market is not screaming “buy everything.”
But it is also not screaming “sell everything.”**
The market is undecided.
MACD Is Giving Us A Different Warning
This is where the chart becomes even more interesting.
The monthly MACD is still negative.
The screenshot shows:
DIF: ~207
DEA: ~4,023
MACD: ~-3,816
The important thing is not simply the number itself.
The important thing is the relationship between DIF and DEA.
DIF is still below DEA.
That means the longer-term momentum has not completely turned bullish yet.
So we have an unusual combination.
Bitcoin's price has recovered.
RSI is neutral.
But the monthly MACD is still showing weakness.
This tells me that the recovery is real, but confirmation of a stronger long-term trend has not arrived yet.
So What Would Make The Bullish Case Stronger?
For me, the first important confirmation would be Bitcoin reclaiming the $80K area.
But breaking $80K alone would not be enough.
I would pay more attention to whether Bitcoin can move through the $82K–$83K region, where the MA(30) currently sits.
If Bitcoin can break above that area and hold it, while momentum indicators begin improving, the monthly structure would become much more convincing.
That would tell us that the market is not simply recovering.
It would suggest that Bitcoin is beginning to rebuild a stronger bullish structure.
What If Bitcoin Falls Instead?
The other side of the equation is around $70K–$71K.
That area is important because it is close to the monthly MA(7).
If Bitcoin loses that zone and cannot quickly reclaim it, the current recovery structure becomes more vulnerable.
It does not automatically mean a major crash is coming.
But it would increase the probability of Bitcoin searching for lower support.
And this is where patience becomes important.
Sometimes the best opportunity is not the first dip.
Sometimes the market gives you a second chance at a better price.
The Macro Picture Makes This Even More Complicated
The Bitcoin chart cannot be separated from the macro environment.
And right now, the macro picture is mixed.
U.S. inflation remained elevated in August, with headline CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year.
Core CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month, while markets significantly increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming meeting. 0
At the same time, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently moved close to 5% before easing toward around 4.93%.
That is still a very important level for global markets.
Higher Treasury yields can make traditional fixed-income assets more attractive and can put pressure on risk assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.
This is why Bitcoin's current position is interesting.
The price is recovering.
But the macro environment is not giving it an easy path.
Bitcoin Is Fighting Two Forces
On one side, there is demand.
Bitcoin has shown strong resilience around the $77K region.
The market is still willing to buy Bitcoin after significant corrections.
On the other side, there are macro pressures.
Higher yields.
Persistent inflation.
Oil prices.
Federal Reserve expectations.
And concerns surrounding the enormous U.S. fiscal deficit and debt burden.
Reuters recently noted that the U.S. 10-year yield approached 5%, while long-term borrowing costs remain under pressure from fiscal deficits, heavy bond issuance and the country's debt load.
This creates an important battle.
Bitcoin wants liquidity and risk appetite.
The bond market is demanding higher returns.
And that competition matters.
This Is Why I Don't Think $77K Is A Simple Bottom
If someone asks me:
“Is $77K the bottom?”
I don't think we have enough confirmation to say that.
But if someone asks:
“Is $77K an interesting area to watch?”
Absolutely.
Because Bitcoin is currently sitting between two important technical zones.
Around $70K–$71K = potential support.
Around $82K–$83K = major resistance.
The middle is where uncertainty lives.
And uncertainty is exactly where investors need a strategy.
Three Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1 — Bullish Breakout
Bitcoin holds above the current area.
Then it breaks through $80K.
After that, it successfully reclaims the $82K–$83K region.
If momentum improves at the same time, the monthly structure becomes significantly stronger.
This would make the bullish case much more convincing.
Scenario 2 — Sideways Accumulation
Bitcoin remains between roughly $70K and $83K.
The market moves sideways.
RSI stays around neutral.
MACD slowly improves.
And investors continue accumulating during periods of weakness.
This could actually be a healthy scenario.
Bitcoin does not always need to immediately explode higher.
Sometimes the market needs time to build the next structure.
Scenario 3 — Deeper Correction
Bitcoin fails to hold the current structure.
The $70K–$71K area breaks.
Macro conditions become more restrictive.
Treasury yields continue rising.
And risk appetite weakens.
In that situation, Bitcoin could search for lower support before attempting another recovery.
That would not necessarily destroy the long-term Bitcoin thesis.
It would simply mean that the market needs more time to reset.
My View
Personally, I don't see $77K as a place where I would blindly go all-in.
But I also don't think it makes sense to automatically assume that Bitcoin must fall much lower.
The chart is telling us something more subtle.
Bitcoin has recovered.
RSI is neutral.
Price is above the MA(7).
But price is still below the MA(30).
And the monthly MACD remains negative.
For me, this means confirmation is more important than prediction.
I would rather watch what Bitcoin does around $70K–$71K and $82K–$83K than try to predict the exact bottom.
If Bitcoin breaks higher and confirms the breakout, the market gives us information.
If Bitcoin falls toward stronger support, the market also gives us information.
The goal is not to predict every move.
The goal is to understand the structure well enough to make better decisions.
My Idea: Buy This Zone Or Wait?
This is actually the question that made me interested in this chart in the first place.
BTC is sitting around $77K.
The monthly structure is rebuilding.
But we are still below a major monthly resistance area.
So my personal question is simple:
Would you buy Bitcoin around this zone?
Or would you rather wait for a deeper correction toward the $70K–$71K area?
There is no guarantee that Bitcoin will give us a lower entry.
And there is also no guarantee that $77K will become the bottom.
That is the difficult part of investing.
Sometimes waiting for a lower price means missing the breakout.
Sometimes buying early means experiencing another 10–15% correction.
That is why I think the most important thing right now is not choosing between “bullish” or “bearish.”
It is understanding the levels, the momentum, and the macro environment before making a decision.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin around $77K is not an obvious bottom.
It is not an obvious top either.
It is a zone where the market is asking us to pay attention.
Above $82K–$83K, the structure could become significantly stronger.
Below $70K–$71K, the recovery could become more fragile.
Until one of those areas gives us clearer confirmation, patience may be more valuable than prediction.
And perhaps that is the real lesson from this chart.
You don't always need to know where Bitcoin will go next.
Sometimes you only need to know what you will do when it gets there.
My Thought
“While many people try to predict Bitcoin's next move, a few simply prepare for both directions.”
What do you think?
Are you buying Bitcoin around $77K, or are you waiting for a deeper correction before entering?
Sources
Market data: CoinGecko
U.S. inflation and Treasury market data: Reuters
U.S. Treasury information: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Technical indicators: BTC monthly chart shown in this article
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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