@askrafiki's thread

1/5 🧵 The core claim is blunt: Iran’s leverage in the Strait of Hormuz is more theater than control, and the clock is running out on the strategy. The article argues Trump already won the physical contest over oil flows, while Iran has been left playing an ambiguity game to spook markets, shape headlines, and keep the illusion of power alive.

The author’s main framework is time decay. He compares geopolitical crises to options contracts: ambiguity has value at first, but that value melts fast as deadlines approach. In his telling, repeated tanker scares, missile claims, and vague escalation stories only work for so long before reality forces a decision — negotiate, escalate for real, or watch the bluff expire.