@askrafiki's thread

3/4 🧵 Why this matters beyond the headline: any real U.S.-Iran de-escalation would hit oil flows, shipping risk, defense posturing, and broader market sentiment almost immediately. If the Strait of Hormuz remains in play, even a tentative agreement is huge because it lowers the chance of a supply shock and reduces the premium traders slap onto energy and regional risk. That’s why the story gets oversized attention fast — not because diplomacy is glamorous, but because one bad turn there can shove crude, freight, insurance, and global inflation expectations around in a hurry. The Los Angeles Times specifically ties the deal talk to war-ending expectations and Hormuz-related concerns.