The final year of a bull market is not easy to anticipate. But I'm sure you have some thoughts regarding potential scenarios.
My scenarios have been rather broad, because frankly, I didn't think one could get a more detailed picture of what would happen.
My first scenario was that we might have a very strong Q1 and beginning of Q2, followed by a serious cool off during the summer, and heating up for the final push at the end of summer or beginning of fall. Of course, there could have been differences between BTC and alts, and between various categories of alts.
This scenario is still possible, but the more time passes from Q1, the more unlikely it becomes, in this form. Especially alts, with some exceptions, don't have time to heat up and explode in the remaining time.
The second scenario I had in mind was that we might have a rather dull first half of the year, with some fireworks and scares here and there and for particular assets, and a more serious heating up in the second part of the year as the bull market approaches its "natural" end.
The third and last scenario is the following: Bitcoin continues to attract incredible amounts of funds and continues to go up or hold its value (with some pullbacks), while on the alts side things would be quite like wild west, some going up, others going down, and without a "proper" alt season. To this eventuality contributes the incredible number of tokens in existence, all wanting to attract capital. On the alts side, if you manage to hold the ones going up, you would be quite happy. I'm hoping Hive would be in this category. It certainly has attracted enough attention - there are people making good profits with HIVE without ever touching our ecosystem. While it is a pity they don't try out Hive, it is how things work, and it's probably much better to have them interested at least in our HIVE coin than not.
Unfortunately, if you hold the ones going down and continue to hold them in the hope of an alt season, in the 3rd scenario, where we won't have an alt season of the same type as before, you may end up holding a bunch of dead weight. Unless the coins you hold have a utility you are interested in for the long term, in which case, price is only a temporary measurement of the balance between demand and offer.
Regarding January, it was a month with everything. We had a selloff at the middle of the month (a week before Trump was inaugurated was the lowest), we didn't really have a "sell the news" event, but didn't go higher either. We also had a new ATH for BTC on inauguration day, slightly higher than the previous one. Since inauguration, BTC is kind of flat, slowly down.
Actually, if we take a step back and look on the daily chart, it looks like we have been trading flat, in accumulation/distribution mode, for over two months already.
Alts have been all over the place in January, a few going up (Solana, Hive, etc.), most going down, especially in the last part of the month. Actually, HIVE lived off the pump from the beginning of the year, pulling back from there, with two intermediary smaller pumps (the last one after news broke about potential sanctions against Upbit for irregularities).
Trump managed to screw things up for the alts with his meme coins, because that market cap came from somewhere, and mostly I believe it came from alt coins (which, include other meme coins). Either that, or it came from BTC too, but that this one there is a constant buying demand as well, through Microstrategy and other new whales that are accumulating regardless of price.
At the same time, Trump avoided to single out Bitcoin in his executive order for digital assets, which pissed off Bitcoin maxis, but is probably a good sign for the crypto sphere as a whole.
At the beginning of the year I thought January would be more bullish. If February starts the same way, my first scenario seems to not be an option anymore.
So, how did you find the month of January in crypto? What do you expect for the rest of the year?
Posted Using INLEO
