Someone on HivePredict opened a market asking whether the US will confirm aliens exist before 2027. The description just says "Saw this on Polymarket :P"
That's kind of the whole pitch tbh. If you've ever scrolled Polymarket and thought "yeah I'd have a punt on that", you can do it right here on Hive. With your HIVE, logged in with Keychain. No bridging USDC to Polygon, no new wallet, no signup.
And the aliens one is a good example of why it's fun. 108 HIVE says no, 2 HIVE says yes. So if the little green guys do turn up, every HIVE on yes comes back as 53.
Not saying bet on aliens. Just saying you could lol
ok so what is it
HivePredict is a prediction market built on Hive. Anyone can open a market on pretty much anything (crypto prices, sport, elections, the Fed, aliens apparently) and people bet on the outcome in HIVE, HBD or a Hive Engine token. LEO included, so yes you can run a market in LEO.
It's parimutuel. Sounds fancy, it isn't. There's no bookie and no order book, everyone's stake goes into one pot per market. When it resolves, the winners get their stake back and split the losing side's pot in proportion to what they put in. Platform takes 3%, and only out of the losing side.
Which also means the odds swing around a LOT right now. Pools are small, so a 20 HIVE bet can move a market 30 points. On Polymarket you're up against market makers with deep pockets. Here you're up against a few dozen Hivians. Make of that what you will.
@tobetada did a really good walkthrough of placing bets and creating a market last week, so I won't repeat all that here. Go read it.
it actually pays out
The Brazil election market settled this weekend. 423 HIVE in the pool, 83% of it on Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula won.
Every HIVE on Lula paid 8.73x. @master-lamps put 15 HIVE on him back in March and got 131 back. Payouts landed in wallets on-chain right after it resolved, nobody had to claim anything. Full breakdown is in the HiveBR post if you want the gory details.
That one's the dream scenario btw. The crowd was confidently wrong and the people who backed the outsider early got paid for it.
you can check all of it
Every bet is a transfer plus a custom_json on chain. Every resolution has a tx id. Every payout is a transfer. There's no private database where the real numbers live, the app just reads the chain. The transparency page adds it all up:
577 markets so far, 1,928 bets, a bit under 7,800 HIVE through it plus a pile of Hive Engine tokens. Somebody really likes betting ASH.
what else is in there
- Crypto, HIVE, commodity and index markets resolve themselves off CoinGecko and Yahoo Finance. Nobody has to decide anything.
- Sports markets open automatically for a bunch of leagues, and there are monthly tipping comps for the EPL, NFL, NBA, UCL, A-League and more. 25 HIVE to enter, pick every game, top three split the pot.
- You can cash out early on the auto-resolved markets if you change your mind (there's a small penalty).
- Your invite link gets you and your mate 25% of the fee on their bets for 90 days, then you keep 20% of it for as long as they play.
- Spending limits, cooldowns and self-exclusion are in settings if you want them. Self-exclusion is enforced on-chain, so you can't sneak back in early.
it's still small
Under 200 people have placed a bet so far and most pools are tens of HIVE, not thousands. I've spent way more time building this thing than telling anyone about it, hence posting here and not in HiveDevs again.
Best thing you can do if you're into it: make a market about something you actually know. Your coin, your team, the next Fed meeting, whatever. Markets where the creator cares get bets.
And tell me what's missing, I read every comment.
hivepredict.app. Log in with Keychain or HiveSigner, browse without logging in at all.
Posted Using INLEO
