The purported aim of Trump's tariffs is to bring manufacturing, and manufacturing jobs, back to America, creating more 'solid, honest jobs' for America's working classes.
But this theory, and it is just a theory, evades a fundamental question: who will occupy these jobs?
A Growing Worker Shortage
The reality is that America currently lacks the workers to take up these hypothetical newly created manufacturing jobs.
According to the latest data, 40% of small business owners had openings they were unable to fill. There are also severe worker shortages in construction (56%), transportation (53%), and manufacturing (47%). In fact, except for the unusual circumstance with the pandemic, America's shortage of workers is now the worst that it has been in 50 years.
This is not just a manufacturing issue—millions of working-age Americans have dropped out of the workforce entirely. Some are receiving welfare, while others are recent college graduates who are unable to find jobs in their field and refuse or are unable to take other jobs, including manufacturing jobs.
You've probably seen these spoof vids, they have a point!
The Graduate Dilemma (again!)
Unfortunately, sociology graduates are one such group cited in this debate. Despite their education, they find themselves not being able to get a job in their career of choice. The unemployment rate for recent sociology graduates is 6.7% and the median income is $48,000. Ironically, they could probably earn that same amount on a car assembly line, but few choose to do so. This points to a broader issue: a culture and skill imbalances between available workforce and available work.
Final Thoughts...
Fundamentally, America's economic future is not merely about bringing jobs back, but having enough willing and able workers to fill them.
The rise in the number of people neither working nor actively looking for work is a far more serious threat to America's economic and cultural vitality than job loss in manufacturing per se. Fixing this problem will demand more than trade policy and tariffs. It needs a more serious look at labor force participation, skills training, and cultural attitudes toward certain kinds of work.
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