Gold is trading at $4,376.16 per ounce today, up 26.14 points or about 0.60%. This keeps the bullish momentum going since early August, after price broke through the first resistance zone between $4,187 and $4,225. From there, gold kept climbing until it hit its highest point at $4,449, right where it ran into an FVG zone that's still open in that area.
Looking at the daily time frame, three candles have already pushed through the gray FVG box sitting between $4,385 and $4,419. What's interesting is that right after hitting that high, a bearish engulfing candle showed up, a sign that sellers are stepping in and closing a red body over the previous green candle. Even though the bigger structure still leans bullish, this candle is a warning that a short term pullback could happen, especially since the last candle actually closed green.
Switching to the 4 hour time frame, things look cleaner. Price pulled back briefly before forming a change of character, which points to a shift in momentum. As an analyst, I can't say for sure whether price will reject first before continuing, or just push straight ahead toward the next target between $4,595 and $4,642. All I can share is what's showing up on my screen right now.
Interestingly, this price move lines up with global gold ETF flow data too. For the week ending August 7, 2026, total gold ETF holdings sat at 4,090 tonnes with assets under management reaching $571.8 billion. There was $3,045.5 million in fresh inflows during the week, pushing demand up by 22 tonnes, or 0.5% of total holdings. Breaking it down by region, North America, Europe, and Asia all posted positive flows, while other regions saw a slight dip of minus 0.1%.
The historical ETF flow chart going back to September 2024 shows a similar pattern too, where big inflow spikes tend to show up right alongside gold's rally phases, just like what happened before price broke through $5,000 earlier this year and then pulled back to the $4,000 - $3,900 range.
So for those still holding long positions, stay alert for a possible short term pullback, but the bigger structure still leaves room for the uptrend to continue as long as the $4,155 support level holds.
⛔Disclaimer, this is purely personal opinion based on technical analysis, not financial advice. DYOR before making any decisions.
Posted Using INLEO
