The crypto market is currently grabbing our attention with the four year cycle narrative that is heating up again. Based on the viral cycle map, bitcoin's movement is now mapped into four main phases, all built around the halving schedule. This pattern has repeated since 2014, placing the current cycle in a crucial zone for us. On the other hand, data from trader activity on the kalshi platform gives us a more cautious view, as the probability of bitcoin $BTC breaking back above the $100,000 price level before 2027 has dropped to 12%. Additionally, the current market volatility is driven by supply dynamics and institutional capital flows that are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels on major exchanges.
Looking at the daily volume data, I currently see quite high uncertainty in the market. These transaction fluctuations have not shown a truly consistent accumulation or distribution trend, so traders, including us, tend to just wait and see.
In line with the volume condition, open interest data shows that open positions are still in a consolidation phase. This reflects clear hesitation from traders in determining the direction of bitcoin's next price move, which keeps the market moving sideways.
On the 1 day time frame, technically, I have identified key resistance zones that will determine the price direction for us. The highest resistance is in the $90,280 - $88,400 zone, which is a crucial area to break through for a long term bullish structure. Meanwhile, for the second resistance, we are looking at the $74,265 - $73,060 zone, which acts as a major barrier in the short term before the price can break out to higher levels.
Meanwhile, on the 4 hour time frame, selling pressure seems more dominant, as the price is struggling against the moving average. The stochastic indicator on this time frame confirms that volatility is high, and we need to be alert for potential price rejection at current levels.
If we look at this long term chart from fidelity, we can see that bitcoin's price moves in a neat power Law corridor. This distinguishes the distribution zone, where the price hits a saturation point, and the accumulation zone, which is attractive for investors to enter. Currently, bitcoin's price is still within the power law spectrum, giving us an idea of whether we are in an overvalued or undervalued area compared to its historical trend.
My Opinion
Technically, on the 1 day time frame, I believe the price structure still has enough buyer pressure to keep the trend relevant and potentially move higher.
However, if we look at the 4 hour time frame, the current selling pressure is too dominant and is pressing down on short term price movements. This condition requires us to stay disciplined with risk management and stop loss, because in my opinion, the volatility on that time frame is still very high.
Source
⛔ Disclaimer (Read this or your wallet might cry)
This analysis is strictly for educational purposes and reflects my personal opinion only. It is NOT financial advice. Look, if this trade goes to the moon, I’d love a tiny piece of the pie (sharing is caring, right?). But if it goes down the drain... well, my name is No and my sign is No. You are the captain of your own ship here.
Trading involves real risks, so always use a stop loss (SL) and never risk money you need for tomorrow's lunch. Practice strict risk management. Your wallet, your responsibility
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