@acidyo was writing about HIVE at $10 - and as farfetched as it sounds at times, people should also remember that this is crypto, anything can happen. Of course, the likelihood of $10 HIVE might be pretty low, but with a decent run on the markets and those crazy crypto cats, it might get a peak at that point. Granted, it wouldn't stay there long.
The floor is important.
I have been around on Hive for a while, and have held most of what I have earned through participating, and what I haven't held, is still in crypto, and mostly on Splinterlands. It has been an expensive exercise to stay in Hive, if looking at the "I didn't sell" situation, as if I had a few years ago at the last high, it would have paid off my home, plus some, and still would have left me with a significant amount.
Live and learn?
I hope so.
Though, I am also not confident that I would do anything that different. There is something about selling HIVE that just hasn't sat well with me, even though I would also like the opportunity to sell high and buy back low. It is the few years in between that I think I "fear", where for at least some period of time, I wouldn't have that much held.
However, I should probably spend some time working out just what I would do, considering that I suppose that even if HIVE did hit $10, a couple years later it would be hitting a new floor again. Hopefully a higher floor, but if it hit 10, I would suspect that the new floor would be somewhere about 90-95% down, so somewhere around the 50c-$1 mark.
50c sounds good right now, doesn't it?
When it arrives on the way up it will feel good, but on the way down, people will feel quite different. HIVE isn't quite the same as a lot of other tokens, as there are on platform implications that are bound to the price, like the earnings on posts. Just imagine that if HIVE were to hit $10, that would currently put a $1 post at the 30 dollar mark. That would equate to 0.75 HIVE and 7.5 HBD for the author, and 1.5 HIVE valued at 15 dollars for the curators.
10 dollar HIVE would give me about a $120 vote at full power.
But, it wouldn't likely stay there long, because markets do what markets do, and people will be selling, Despite what they say now. It is hard for people not to, isn't it? Assuming that the price is going to fall again, selling while the going is good just makes sense. At least for some. Though, it would be interesting if it hit 10, people sold and then it went up to twenty.
That is why I don't think I would sell that much at ten, but I would look to set some markers along the way. For instance, if I thought ten was going to be the roof this time around, I might sell 5% at each of the dollar markers, with 25% sold at 10. This would mean that at that point, I would have 50% of my holdings still. For example,
5K at 5 = 25K
5K at 6 = 30K
5K at 7 = 35K
5K at 8 = 40K
5K at 9 = 45K
25K at 10 = 250
total = 435 at an average of 8.5
Sounds okay.
In that scenario above, I would still hold about 80% of my HIVE though, and I think that might be too much to hold, so if it were to drop and look to keep dropping, I might do the same on the way back down too, with the most going near the top. For me, that is life-changing money, because it takes out all debt, allows for us to finish our home, and sets some foundation for other ventures.
But, it is farfetched.
Isn't it?
I dunno. In the last seven years, I have seen some crazy things in crypto, so what is holding back HIVE from some of the craziness? Why is it that a token that actually has usage behind it and is functioning in many ways with a decent level of stability, struggles to get any attention. How come so many of the other tokens that really don't have much going on, get interest?
Maybe it is because people feel that they can get it for free, that they also feel that they don't have to buy it. Or perhaps, because it can be earned, people aren't willing to take it seriously. Maybe there should be a higher barrier to entry to get some HIVE.
What do you think?
It is one of those contradictions, isn't it? People complain about not earning enough on HIVE, and complain about the price of HIVE, yet few seem to want to actually buy some HIVE off the markets and use it to reward others, take a bit for themselves. If they did, then the earnings on HIVE would increase to better satisfy the creators, and the earnings from curation would increase also.
That is crazy talk.
Best just keep dreaming about high prices and other hypotheticals.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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