Good morning everyone. It’s 4:53 a.m. here right now.
I missed last week’s forex blog because I went back home, and the internet connection was not that good. So, I didn’t trade for three days.
Anyway, I’ll try to do some backtesting and review what was happening in the market during that time. Hopefully, I can learn something from the price movement and understand what I could do better next time.
Monday open come with strong bullish pressure. Before Tokyo session, gold already push around 300 pips up based on my broker calculation. There was many buying and selling chance during Tokyo, so the market was not moving one way only.
Tokyo Session
During Tokyo, buyer try to push price higher and break last Friday high. But price could not stay above that area. After the push, it start losing strength and the H1 candles began to turn bearish.
For me, this was an important clue. The first bullish move show buyers were active, but the failure near Friday high show they was not strong enough to continue higher. I should not assume the market is bullish only because Monday open was strong.
US Session and Structure
Later, price made a bearish move during US session. On H1, price moved down from the Tokyo range and broke below the marked level. On M5, there was bearish movement after the upper area, then a pullback toward the breaker block before price continued lower.
H4 also show price breaking below the marked level. This make my bigger view more bearish, because the market was no longer holding above that area.
My Entries
My first sell idea was around the upper order block, after the M5 bearish engulfing signal. This look like the cleanest setup for me, because price reached the area and then show sellers coming in. The entry was more valid if I waited for the candle close and put my invalidation above the high.
The breaker block setup also make sense as a continuation entry. Price already moved down, then came back to the marked area and rejected again. I need to make sure the structure break happened before I call it a breaker, because a zone alone is not enough reason to enter.
My H4 BOS entry was useful for confirming the direction, but I think this one can be late if I sell only after the big bearish candle already move far. A retest from below would give a better entry location, if price come back and reject the broken level.
Tuesday View
My view for tomorrow is bearish continuation, but this is not confirmed yet. I want to see price stay below the broken H4 and H1 area. If it pull back and reject there, sellers may continue pushing down.
If price reclaim the broken level and hold above it, then my bearish idea become weaker and I should not force a sell. Monday teach me that the opening bullish pressure can reverse, but I still need wait for structure and confirmation before making a decision.
Posted Using INLEO
