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Bitcoin price to 265k USD: Yes or Nay?

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turpsy
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It has been 11 months since I wrote about the potential of BTCUSDT. This was based on my assessments of the previous price actions over the last 16years of Bitcoin and the use of only the Fibonacci tool.

If you have not read it, I have put the link here and below.

Now, lets do a little dive to my thought process at the moment.

We are in a new cycle (5th cycle).

Below is an excerpt from the last post Image from thread
Look at the table below to see the predictions based on the Fibonacci level
Image from thread

I changed the price for the bottom, since we had a new low than what was in the last post above.
Image from thread

From the post above, one of the targets just got hit recently, 1.618 at 102076 usd. 🕺 🕺

At the current price of BTC (98,516usd). That shows we are on the right part.
Image from thread https://www.tradingview.com/x/dD4pHNBr/

The Fib parameters are from the low of the last cycle to the high of it, 69000, to 15479. Chart is from Bitstamp exchange with Heiken Ashi candles on weekly TF.

The First pop above the last cycles high gave us a retracement to 0.382 Fibonacci. From experience, if price closes below 0.236 Fib, we are going to touch either 0.382 or 0.5 Fib. In this case, price reacted at 0.382 and went higher.
Image from thread https://www.tradingview.com/x/AVoVTwto/
At the current price action, we can see that the price hasn't closed below the 0.236 yet, and it seems it would retest the weely resistance at 101,253usd before probably moving down or up.
Image from thread https://www.tradingview.com/x/0bnzxN91/
Image from thread https://www.tradingview.com/x/gWgkEseT/

On a longer overview, this is the current idea,
Image from thread https://www.tradingview.com/x/JcZvm9yn/

Price hasn't touched 0.236 (86459usd), 0.382 (72895usd) nor 0.5(61932usd). We know with a higher probability that a touch of 0.618 (50969usd) is a buy.

My thoughts

Price in the coming weeks will show us if it will retrace after hitting the recent weekly resistance at 101253 usd or it will go above the last high at 108385USD before retracing. We could be seeing a potential support at the 96308usd, which leads me to believe we might be in arrange
Image from thread https://www.tradingview.com/x/hhpUB0SF/

If the price should start being rejected on a weekly timeframe, we will be looking for a reliable test of 0.236 and 0.382 Fib. If the price breaks above the last high, then any close back to the range could send us straight to 0.382 Fib.

With this information, we would ONLY adjust the overall Fib if price goes higher than 108385 usd.

See you in the coming weeks.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New 2025 in advance

Posted Using InLeo Alpha