Hi HODLers and Hiveans,
Waiting for some positions to pay out on my Predictions markets. This should happen over the weekend.
I have my eyes on the June Inflation numbers. May CPI came under consensus at 2.4% (vs 2.5% expected) which you can see in the CPI Expectations drop for June.
It did bounce back following the ongoing escalation between Iran and Israel. WTI Prices shot up 10%+. I will take a close look and if forecasts get closer to 2.7% I might load in the No on 2.7%/2.8% and 2.9%.
Let's remember that we are alrady mid-month and that even if oil and gas prices go up, they do not reflect instantly at the gas station or in your utility bill. Therefore, some retail bettors/investors might overplay this little pop.
Time will tell if I take big positions on this or if I keep myself on the sidelines. In any case, I will update you!
Any thoughts? Would you take the over or under on US inflation being 2.6% in June 2025?
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